El Nino Monitoring Bulletin: It is predicted that the possibility of El Nino phenomenon occurring through the summer will increase

2026/02/11 20:22

On the 11th (Wednesday), the Japan Meteorological Agency announced the latest El Nino monitoring bulletin.

Currently, conditions appear to be normal, with neither El Nino nor La Nina phenomena occurring, but conditions close to La Nina are believed to be on the way to being resolved.
It is expected that the probability of an El Nino phenomenon occurring will increase from spring to summer.

The difference in sea surface temperature in the El Nino monitoring area in January from the standard value was -0.4c, which is close to the standard value. Additionally, the five-month moving average used to determine the occurrence of El Nino and La Nina phenomena in October was -0.5 C, close to the standard value.
Sea surface temperatures in the equatorial Pacific Ocean remained higher than normal in the western region and lower than normal in the central and eastern regions.
Surface ocean water temperatures in the equatorial Pacific Ocean were higher than normal in the western and central regions, while lower than normal in the eastern region, but the anomalies were smaller than in the previous month.
Easterly winds (trade winds) in the lower atmosphere in the equatorial Pacific Ocean were slightly stronger than normal in the central and eastern regions, and convective activity was almost at normal levels near the international date line in the equatorial Pacific.

The above results indicate that although we are in a normal state where neither El Nino nor La Nina phenomena have occurred, conditions close to La Nina phenomena are on the way to being resolved.



According to the live report, warm water on the surface of the ocean from the western to central equatorial Pacific Ocean is moving eastward. The integrated atmosphere-ocean model predicts that sea surface temperatures in the El Nino monitoring area will gradually rise through summer as this warm water moves eastward.
Although it is expected that the value will be close to the standard value by the end of winter, there is a possibility that the value will remain higher than the standard value from spring to summer (however, there is great uncertainty in predicting El Nino events that will exceed the standard value during this period).

From the above, it is predicted that during the spring, the probability of an El Nino phenomenon occurring and the probability of normal conditions continuing are about the same (50%). However, in summer, although there is a possibility that normal conditions will continue (40%), the probability of an El Nino phenomenon occurring is expected to be relatively high (60%).


#What is the El Nino/La Nina phenomenon
The El Nino phenomenon is a phenomenon in which sea surface temperatures are higher than normal from the equatorial Pacific Ocean near the international date line to the coast of South America, and this condition continues for about a year.

On the other hand, a phenomenon in which sea surface temperatures continue to be lower than normal in the same area is called a La Nina phenomenon.

Once an El Nino or La Nina phenomenon occurs, it is thought that abnormal weather will occur all over the world, including Japan.

It will be sunny in many places in the second half of the week, and the weather will turn into the same weather as in March and April through the weekend.

2026/02/11 17:47

There is a low pressure system in the sea near Chishima and it is moving northeast.
Also, there is a low pressure system over the sea east of the Kanto region, moving northeast, and a front extending from the sea south of the Kanto region to the Okinawa region.

Currently snowing and raining on the Sea of Japan coast from Hokkaido to the Sanin area.
Also, there are places in the Kanto region, Kii Peninsula, and Shikoku where it is raining.

Today, due to the effects of low pressure and fronts, there were many places where it rained and snowed, but it is now gradually stopping in many places.



Tomorrow, snow and rain are expected on the Sea of Japan side from Hokkaido to Tohoku and Niigata prefectures due to cold air in the upper atmosphere and a winter-like atmospheric pressure pattern centered on northern Japan, but the day after tomorrow, the 13th (Friday), high pressure will spread over the Pacific side of northern Japan and western and eastern Japan, so it will be sunny in many places.





It will be relatively warm during the day, and it looks like it will be sunny around March.
During the weekend from the 14th (Saturday) to the 15th (Sunday), the weather is likely to deteriorate mainly in Hokkaido, northern Tohoku, and western Japan as a low pressure system and front approach and pass. However, as warm air enters the country, the weather will suddenly become spring-like, and it looks like rain will fall instead of snow in many places.

Temperatures are typical for this time of year in western Japan; cold protection is a must in the Kanto region; the weekend will bring spring warmth

2026/02/11 07:20

Today, the 11th, a low pressure system will pass near Honshu, and rain is expected to fall over a wide area around Japan.
During the day, the weather will gradually stop in many places in western Japan, mainly on the Pacific side, and the sun will return in the afternoon, so temperatures will likely rise in many places compared to yesterday (10th). It looks like the temperature will be typical for this time of year.

On the other hand, in many places in eastern Japan, including the Kanto region, the rain will gradually stop in the afternoon, but the rain is expected to last a little longer and the temperature will rise slowly. It looks like it's going to be a day in central Tokyo, where temperatures are expected to reach 8 degrees Celsius, making cold protection a must.

Northern Japan will be covered with warm air in the upper atmosphere during the day, so temperatures will be similar to March. In areas where there is a lot of snow, there is a risk that the snow will continue to melt, so be careful of snow falling from the roof or avalanches. Please be aware of changes in temperature as cold air moves in through the night.



Over the weekend, it is expected that cold air above Japan will be less likely to flow into the area, and it will be more likely to be covered by warm air from the south.
Temperatures are expected to rise throughout the weekend over the weekend, and from the 14th (Saturday) to the 15th (Sunday) will be the warmest of spring.
The temperature in central Tokyo on the 15th (Sunday) will be 17 degrees Celsius, which is expected to be as sunny as early April.
Also, the temperature is high on the Sea of Japan side where there is a lot of snowfall, and on the 15th (Sunday), it will be 11c in Aomori, 13c in Niigata, and 16c in Kanazawa, which is expected to be as warm as early April. As the snow continues to melt, you need to be careful about snowmelt disasters.

Today's weather on the 11th (Wednesday/Holiday): Umbrellas are in use across a wide area; heavy rain for the first time in a while on the Pacific side

2026/02/11 06:27

Today, the 11th (Wednesday), National Foundation Day, a low pressure system accompanied by a front is expected to pass near Japan. The weather will deteriorate over a wide area, mainly on the Pacific side, and it looks like the Pacific side will experience heavy rain for the first time in a while. In addition, another low pressure system will pass through northern Japan, so snow and rain will spread across northern Japan as well.



In Hokkaido, it snows easily, and the weather is like it rains on and off. It is expected to stop in many places on the Pacific coast in the afternoon, but there are likely to be some light snow showers on the Sea of Okhotsk and Sea of Japan sides into the evening.

In Tohoku and Hokuriku, it will fall as rain rather than snow in flat areas. In areas with heavy snowfall, snow melts rapidly, so please be careful of snow falling from roofs, deteriorating road conditions, and avalanches.

There will be widespread rain from eastern to western Japan. Precipitation will become stronger mainly on the Pacific side near the low pressure system, causing heavy rain and thunderstorms in some places, so caution is required. It's been a while since we've seen heavy rain on the Pacific side, so it looks like it's going to be a blessing.
There is a risk of heavy snow along the mountains of Koshin in the morning. Please be careful of traffic obstructions due to heavy snow and frozen roads.

In many places, the rain will stop during the day, and in many places in western Japan it will stop by noon, and in many places in eastern Japan, including the Kanto region, it will stop gradually in the afternoon. Please be careful not to leave your rain gear behind when you return.

Tomorrow, the 11th (Wednesday), a public holiday, will see rain and snow across the country, with heavy rain in Tokyo for the first time in three months.

2026/02/10 13:34

Today, the 10th (Tuesday), the area around Japan is covered in high pressure, and many places from Hokkaido to the Kinki region are sunny. On the other hand, due to the influence of moist air circulating around the edge of the high pressure system, clouds are increasing in Chugoku, Shikoku, and Kyushu, and it is starting to rain in some places in Kyushu.



Tonight, a low pressure system forming in the East China Sea is expected to approach the Kyushu area with a front. After this, the rain will spread from the west in the afternoon, and it is likely to rain over a wide area of western Japan by late evening.
There is a risk of heavy rain accompanied by thunder.

In the Hokkaido region, snow and rain will begin overnight due to another low-pressure system approaching from the Sea of Japan.



Tomorrow, the 11th (Wednesday), National Foundation Day, as a low pressure system develops and moves eastward over Honshu, active rain clouds will spread to eastern and northern Japan.
Rain and wind will be stronger, especially on the Pacific side near the center of the cyclone and the front.

Heavy rain and thunderstorms are expected in the early hours of the next morning in Kyushu, from early morning until dawn in Shikoku and Kinki, and from morning to early afternoon in the Izu Islands.
Please be aware that there is a risk of strong gusts of wind such as lightning and tornadoes.

In the Kanto region, it will also rain mainly in the morning tomorrow.
In Tokyo, if the precipitation exceeds 10mm tomorrow, it will be the first heavy rain in three months since November 9th.
However, in the Koshin region such as Nagano and Yamanashi, it snows mainly in high altitude areas, and there may be places where it snows even in flat areas.

In the flatlands of Tohoku and Hokuriku, there are places where it rains instead of snow, so in areas with heavy snowfall, be careful of avalanches and falling snow caused by melting snow.



From the 12th (Thursday) to the 13th (Friday), high pressure will protrude from the west and it will be sunny in many places. In northern Japan, winter-like atmospheric pressure patterns will continue on the 12th (Thursday), and snow will continue on the Japan Sea side, but on the 13th (Friday), high pressure will cover the area, and the area of snow and rain will be narrower.

During the weekend from the 14th (Sat) to the 16th (Mon), temperatures are expected to be higher than normal.
The predicted maximum temperature for the 15th (Sunday) is 7c in Sapporo, which is similar to late March, 11c in Akita, 13c in Niigata, and 17c in Tokyo, which is similar to early April.

Weather for the week Tomorrow, the 10th (Tuesday), the weather will go downhill in western and northern Japan; rain is expected over a wide area on the holiday, the 11th (Wednesday)

2026/02/09 07:48

Tomorrow, the 10th (Tuesday), the center of the high pressure system will move away to the east of Japan. In western Japan, a low pressure system and a front are gradually approaching, and the weather is going downhill. Additionally, a low pressure system is expected to approach northern Japan by night.
In western Japan, it is likely to start raining in northern Kyushu and the Chugoku region around noon. The area of rain will gradually spread, and even in Shikoku, the weather will deteriorate into the night and there will be some places with rain. In northern Japan, it is likely that rain and snow will gradually fall in some places starting in the evening due to the influence of low pressure systems and local fronts.



On Wednesday the 11th, National Foundation Day, a low pressure system accompanied by a front will pass over the southern coast of Honshu. As a result, there will be rain over a wide area around Honshu, and southerly winds will become stronger in some areas along the Pacific coast of western and eastern Japan. There are likely to be localized areas with heavy rain accompanied by thunderstorms. If you are planning to go out on a public holiday, please be careful about how it rains.
Even in northern Japan and Hokuriku, there will be many places where it will rain instead of snow. As the snow continues to melt in areas with a lot of snow, you need to be careful of falling snow, avalanches, and deteriorating road conditions.

From the 12th to the 14th, the area around Honshu will be easily covered by high pressure. Maximum daytime temperatures will be higher than normal in many places. However, there is a possibility that a low pressure system or front will approach the Pacific side of northern and western Japan around the 15th (Sunday), so please pay close attention to future information.

Weather for today, the 9th (Monday): Be careful of frozen roads this morning. Snow on the Sea of Japan side is expected to gradually subside.

2026/02/09 06:43

The area around Honshu continues to have a winter-like pressure pattern, but the winter-like pressure pattern is expected to gradually loosen from the west.

In areas along the Sea of Japan from northern Japan to the San'in area, please be careful of snow and blizzard, which will start to snow mainly in the morning and become heavier until around noon. In the afternoon, the snow will become smaller in area and will stop in many places.

Although many areas on the Pacific side are expected to have sunny skies, there are many places where snow remains from yesterday, so please be careful of frozen roads this morning.
Also, it is getting colder this morning, especially in inland areas, so please be careful of water pipes freezing due to the low temperatures.

During the day, the sun is expected to reach many places and it will be warmer than yesterday, but the maximum daytime temperature will still be below 10c in many places, making it a cold winter. Please wear warm clothes when going out.

Tomorrow, the winter-like atmospheric pressure pattern will ease from the west, but we need to be on guard for heavy snow and blizzards tonight.

2026/02/08 18:16

The area around Japan has a strong winter-like atmospheric pressure pattern.
There are places where strong cold air is flowing into the sky and the atmospheric conditions are extremely unstable.



Currently, there is heavy snow mainly on the Sea of Japan side, and there are places where snowfall has increased rapidly, especially on the Sea of Japan side of western Japan.
There are also places on the Pacific side, from Kanto to Shikoku, where there is usually little snow, where heavy snowfall is occurring.
In addition, from northern Japan to western Japan, extremely strong winds are blowing with the snow, causing heavy rain and severe storms in some places.
In many areas, warnings for blizzards, heavy snow, and waves have been issued.



From northern to western Japan, please be on guard for traffic disruptions due to heavy snow and blizzard on the 8th, and be wary of high waves into the 9th.
Also, from eastern to western Japan, especially on the Sea of Japan side, please be careful of strong gusts of wind that can cause lightning strikes and tornadoes.

On the 9th, the winter-like pressure distribution will loosen from the west.





###Snow report (preliminary figures from AMeDAS)
#Snow depth as of 3:00 p.m. on the 8th
Tochigi Prefecture, Nikko City, Torobe 25cm.
Oku-Nikko Chuzenji Lakeside 25cm.
Nasu Plateau 9cm.
Fujiwara, Minakami-cho, Gunma Prefecture 131cm.
Kusatsu 51cm.
Minakami Town Yubara 38cm.
Kumagaya, Saitama Prefecture 5cm.
Chichibu 3cm.
Tsukuba, Ibaraki Prefecture 12cm.
Mito 4cm.
Chiba Prefecture Chiba City Chuo Ward 3cm.
Kitanomaru Park, Chiyoda-ku, Tokyo 2cm.
Yamate-cho, Naka-ku, Yokohama, Kanagawa Prefecture 2cm.
Nagano Prefecture Otari 146cm.
Nozawa Onsen 136cm.
Iiyama 94cm.
Lake Kawaguchi, Yamanashi Prefecture 9cm.
Mineyama, Kyotango City, Kyoto Prefecture 55cm.
Miyama, Nantan City 48cm.
Maizuru 26cm.
Hyogo Prefecture, Kami Town, Uwano Kogen, 164cm.
Toyooka 67cm.
Kamicho Kasumi 54cm.
Ehime Prefecture, Kuma Kogen Town, Kuma 1cm.
Nishiiya, Miyoshi City, Tokushima Prefecture 4cm.
Kochi Prefecture, Tsuno Town, Takano 7cm.

#Snow depth as of 16:00 on the 8th
Daisen, Daisen-cho, Tottori Prefecture 238 cm.
Chizu 67cm.
Yokota, Okuizumo-cho, Shimane Prefecture 63cm.
Iinancho Akana 61cm.
Kaminagata, Maniwa City, Okayama Prefecture 128cm.
Niimi City Chiya 49cm.
Takano, Shobara City, Hiroshima Prefecture 87cm.
Kitahiroshima Town Yahata 63cm.





###Snow Forecast
Due to the heavy snowfall so far, there are some places, mainly from northern Japan to western Japan on the Sea of Japan side, where the amount of snow is significantly higher than normal.
From northern Japan to western Japan, snowfall will continue into the 9th, mainly along the Sea of Japan, and there will be further snowfall in some places.

The predicted 24-hour snowfall from 18:00 on the 8th to 18:00 on the 9th is expected to be 40 cm in the Hokkaido region.
Tohoku Sea of Japan side, along the mountain 40cm.
Tohoku Sea of Japan side flat land 30cm.
Tohoku Pacific side along the mountain 40cm.
Tohoku Pacific side flat land 30cm.
Mountains in the northern Kanto region 50cm.
Flatland in northern Kanto region 7cm.
Izu Islands 5cm.
Koshin region 50cm.
Hokuriku region 60cm.
Tokai region mountains 30cm.
Tokai region flat land 15cm.
Northern Kinki Mountains 30cm.
Northern Kinki plains 25cm.
Kinki Chubu Mountains 25cm.
Kinki Chubu plains 15cm.
Southern Kinki Mountains 15cm.
Southern Kinki plains 3cm.
Chugoku region Sanyo Mountains 25cm.
Chugoku region Sanyo flatland 15cm.
Chugoku region San'in mountains 25cm.
Chugoku region San'in flatland 15cm.
Shikoku region mountains 15cm.
Shikoku region flat land 5cm.
Northern Kyushu Yamaguchi Prefecture Mountains 10cm.
Northern Kyushu Oita Prefecture Mountains 2cm.
Northern Kyushu Kumamoto Prefecture Mountains 2cm.
Northern Kyushu, Yamaguchi Prefecture flatland 2cm.
Northern Kyushu Oita Prefecture flatland 1cm.
Northern Kyushu Kumamoto Prefecture flatland 1cm.

###Wind Forecast
On the 8th, there will be heavy snow in some places.

Maximum wind speed (maximum instantaneous wind speed) expected on the 8th
Tohoku Sea of Japan side Sea 20m/s (30m/s)
Tohoku Sea of Japan side Land 15m/s (30m/s)
Northern Kyushu region 20m/s (30m/s)

###Wave forecast
There will be warning-level high waves in some places into the 9th.

Wave height expected on the 8th
Tohoku Sea of Japan 5m
Izu Islands 6m
Hokuriku region 6m
Northern Kinki 6m

Wave height expected on the 9th
Izu Islands 6m
Ogasawara Islands 6m with swells
Hokuriku region 5m with swells
Northern Kinki 5m With swells

###Disaster prevention matters
From northern to western Japan, please be on guard against traffic disruptions due to heavy snow and blizzard on the 8th, and be wary of high waves through the 9th.
In areas with heavy snowfall in northern and western Japan, be careful of avalanches caused by heavy snowfall, snow accreting on power lines and trees, and snow falling from roofs.
Also, from eastern to western Japan, especially on the Sea of Japan side, please be careful of strong gusts of wind that can cause lightning strikes and tornadoes.
If there are signs of a developing cumulonimbus cloud approaching, please take every precaution to ensure your safety, such as moving inside a building.

Strong winter-like atmospheric pressure continues; on the Sea of Japan side, be wary of traffic disruptions due to heavy snow and blizzards

2026/02/08 07:04

The area around Japan has a strong winter-like atmospheric pressure pattern. Heavy snow is falling on the Sea of Japan side from northern Japan to western Japan, and there are places on the Pacific side as well.
As of 6:45 a.m., heavy snow warnings have been announced for Aomori, Chiba, Tochigi, Toyama, Nagano, Kyoto, Hyogo, Okayama, Tottori, and Shimane prefectures.
Also, a blizzard has been announced in Nagasaki Prefecture.

Today, the 8th (Sunday), even stronger cold air will flow into the sky, and a strong winter-like pressure pattern will continue. Additionally, atmospheric conditions are expected to be extremely unstable. Tomorrow, the 9th (Monday), the winter-like pressure pattern will loosen from the west.

From northern Japan to western Japan, please be on guard for traffic disruptions and high waves due to heavy snow and blizzards today (Sunday), the 8th. In areas with heavy snowfall from northern to western Japan, you need to be careful about avalanches caused by new snow falling in clusters, snow accreting on power lines and trees, and snow falling from roofs. Also, from eastern to western Japan, especially on the Sea of Japan side, please be careful of strong gusts of wind that can cause lightning strikes and tornadoes.




[Snow Forecast]
From northern Japan to western Japan, snowfall will continue until tomorrow 9th (Monday), mainly along the Sea of Japan side, and there will be heavy snowfall not only along the mountains and mountainous areas, but also on the flatlands. There is a risk of heavy snowfall today, the 8th (Sunday), when even stronger cold air will flow into the sky. There are places, mainly from northern Japan to western Japan on the Sea of Japan side, where snowfall is significantly higher than normal, and there is a risk that snowfall will increase further. In addition, heavy snow is expected to occur in some places on the Pacific side, where there is usually little snow.

#Expected amount of snow (in places with a lot of snow)
+Expected 24-hour snowfall amount by dawn on the 9th (Monday)
Hokkaido region 40cm
Tohoku region 50cm
Kanto-Koshin region 40cm
Hokuriku region 80cm
Tokai Region: 50cm
Kinki region: 70cm
Chugoku region: 60cm
Shikoku region: 25cm
Northern Kyushu region 40cm

[Wind forecast]
Today, the 8th (Sunday), there will be heavy snow in some places, mainly on the Sea of Japan side.
#Expected wind strength
+Maximum wind speed (maximum instantaneous wind speed) expected today, the 8th (Sunday)
Tohoku region 20m/s (30m/s)
Northern Kyushu Region 20m/s (30m/s)

[Wave Forecast]
There will be warning level high waves in some places until tomorrow the 9th (Monday).
#Expected wave height
+Expected wave height from today 8th (Sunday) to tomorrow 9th (Monday)
Izu Islands 6m
Ogasawara Islands 6m
Hokuriku region 5m with undulations

Today's weather on the 8th (Sunday): Snow in the Kanto region until morning; heavy snow warning widespread on the Sea of Japan side

2026/02/08 06:40

Today, the 8th (Sunday), a winter-like atmospheric pressure pattern will strengthen near Japan, and the cold air in the sky will reach its peak. On the Sea of Japan side, vigilance against heavy snow continues to be necessary. In addition, the southern Kanto region will also experience snowy weather until around noon.



Snow will fall mainly in areas along the Sea of Japan from northern Japan to western Japan, and it will temporarily become heavier in some places. There is a risk of heavy snow not only along the mountains but also on the flatlands. There is a risk that heavy snow will return to areas where snowfall is higher than normal due to previous heavy snowfalls, so please be careful of snow falling from roofs, avalanches, and traffic disruptions due to heavy snow.

Snow clouds are also moving in on the Pacific side of western Japan, and there is a risk of heavy snow even in areas that usually don't get much snow, so please check the latest information such as traffic information.

The Kanto region will experience snowy weather until the afternoon. Snow has fallen even in the southern Kanto region, where there is usually little snow. If you are going to vote in the House of Representatives election, please be careful where you step. In addition, if you plan to go out by car, please change to winter tires and be careful, such as checking traffic information.
In the afternoon, there will be many places where the weather will stop, and there will be some places where it will be sunny.

The sky in Okinawa is dominated by clouds. There is a possibility of rain later in the evening, so it is a good idea to carry a foldable umbrella.