El Nino monitoring bulletin: The possibility of El Nino occurring into the summer increases

2026/03/10 18:19

On the 10th (Tuesday), the Japan Meteorological Agency released the latest El Nino monitoring bulletin.

Currently, we are in normal conditions, with neither El Nino nor La Nina phenomena occurring, but conditions close to La Nina are expected to be resolved.
It is predicted that the probability of an El Nino phenomenon occurring will be higher in the future in the summer.

The difference in sea surface temperature in the El Nino monitoring area in February from the standard value was +0.1c, which is close to the standard value. Additionally, the 5-month moving average used to determine the occurrence of El Nino and La Nina phenomena in December was -0.4 C, close to the standard value.
Sea surface temperatures in the equatorial Pacific Ocean remained higher than normal in the western and eastern regions and lower than normal in the central region.
The surface water temperature of the ocean in the equatorial Pacific Ocean remained higher than normal, except for parts of the eastern part that were lower than normal.
Easterly winds (trade winds) in the lower atmosphere of the equatorial Pacific were stronger than normal in the western and central regions, but were almost at normal levels in the eastern region. Convective activity became somewhat inactive near the international date line in the equatorial Pacific.

The above results indicate that although we are in a normal state where neither El Nino nor La Nina phenomena have occurred, conditions close to La Nina phenomena are on the way to being resolved.



According to the live report, warm water on the surface of the ocean from the western to central equatorial Pacific Ocean is moving eastward. The coupled atmosphere-ocean model predicts that the eastward movement of this warm water region will intensify and move eastward, causing sea surface temperatures in the El Nino monitoring area to gradually rise through the summer. From spring to summer, sea surface temperatures are expected to be close to or above the standard value (however, there is a wide range of predictions for El Nino events that will extend beyond the spring).

From the above, the probability that an El Nino phenomenon will occur during the spring and the probability that normal conditions will continue are about the same (50%), and there is a possibility that normal conditions will continue in the summer (40%). However, the probability of an El Nino event occurring in summer is expected to be relatively high (60%).


#What is the El Nino/La Nina phenomenon
The El Nino phenomenon is a phenomenon in which sea surface temperatures are higher than normal from the equatorial Pacific Ocean near the international date line to the coast of South America, and this condition continues for about a year.

On the other hand, a phenomenon in which sea surface temperatures continue to be lower than normal in the same area is called a La Nina phenomenon.

Once an El Nino or La Nina phenomenon occurs, it is thought that abnormal weather will occur all over the world, including Japan.

Typhoon No. 3 to occur Typhoon egg developing in east of Philippines [Latest tropical cyclone information]

2026/03/10 11:31

At 10:30 a.m. today, the 10th (Tuesday), the Japan Meteorological Agency announced that a tropical cyclone developing in the east of the Philippines is expected to develop into a typhoon within 24 hours.
When the next typhoon occurs, it will be called "Typhoon No. 3," and it will be the first typhoon in about a month.
It looks like this will be the first typhoon to occur in March.



#Tropical cyclone Today 10th (Tuesday) 9:00 am
Existence area East of the Philippines
Center location 11 degrees 10 minutes north latitude 137 degrees 40 minutes east longitude
moving almost stagnant
central pressure 1006 hPa
maximum wind speed 15 m/s (near center)
maximum instantaneous wind speed 23 m/s

As of 10:30 a.m. today, the 10th (Tuesday), there is a possibility that a tropical cyclone that is developing in the east of the Philippines will become stronger and develop into a typhoon.
This tropical cyclone is mostly stationary east of the Philippines, and is expected to develop into a typhoon east of the Philippines by 9 a.m. tomorrow, Wednesday the 11th.
The next day, it will move slowly east-northeast until the 12th (Thursday), and on the 13th (Friday) it will move northeast and reach the Mariana Islands.
It is expected to turn into a tropical cyclone over the Mariana Islands at 9:00 a.m. on Friday the 13th.
It is unlikely that it will move north, so there will be no impact on Japan.



Looking at the average number of typhoons from January to March, it is the period with the lowest number of typhoons in the year, at 0.3 per month.
Also, even if a typhoon occurs, it never approaches the Japanese archipelago, and since statistics began, there has been no record of a typhoon approaching from January to March.

Today, the 10th, is a cold day across the country.The Kanto region is as cold as mid-winter.The cold days continue into the weekend.

2026/03/10 06:53

Today, the 10th, cold air will flow into Japan, and temperatures across the country are expected to rise slowly, with many places expected to be at or below normal. Particularly in the Kanto region, it is expected to be as cold as mid-winter, and the predicted maximum temperature in central Tokyo is expected to be a bitterly cold 10c. Please be sure to protect yourself from the cold before going out.

The predicted maximum temperature in each region is Sapporo 2c, Sendai 8c, Tokyo 10c, Nagoya 12c, Kanazawa 7c, Osaka 10c, Kochi 14c, and Fukuoka 13c.



Cold air will continue to flow into the weekend, so it looks like it will be a mildly warm week.
Over the weekend, the 14th (Saturday), there will be many days with temperatures that are at or below normal across the country, and the cold will continue. Not only northern Japan, but also the Sea of Japan side of eastern and western Japan is expected to experience severe cold weather, with maximum temperatures in the single digits on some days. Temperatures on the Pacific side will also rise slowly.
It looks like winter clothes will be popular this week.

On the other hand, from the 15th (Sunday) onwards, the effects of the cold air will weaken, and temperatures are likely to return to normal levels in many places. In some places in western Japan, the weather will be as sunny as in April, and the cherry blossoms will likely continue to grow.

Today's weather on the 10th (Tuesday): Snow in northern Kanto until morning, sunny in many places in western Japan

2026/03/10 06:21

Today, the 10th (Tuesday), a low pressure system is expected to move eastward east of Japan, and the area around Japan is expected to be gradually covered by high pressure.



There will be a lot of clouds in northern Japan, especially on the Sea of Japan side, and there will be some light snow showers on the Japan Sea side of Hokkaido around noon.

The skies in Hokuriku and Sanin are also prone to rain and snow, especially in the morning. Please bring rain gear when going out.

There will be some places in the Kanto region where it will snow in the northern part of the country until the morning. Even in flat areas, snow may accumulate in some places, so please be careful and be on guard against traffic problems caused by snow accumulation and frozen roads.
There is also a chance of showers in the south by mid-morning, but the weather is expected to improve in the afternoon.

There are many places west of the Tokai Sea where sunlight reaches during the day. Even if it's sunny, the air will be cool, so please dress warmly.

Rain and snow expected in the Kanto region tonight; heavy snow expected in the northern region into the morning of tomorrow, the 10th.

2026/03/09 13:03

Today, the 9th (Monday), the area around Honshu is gently covered by high pressure, and many places in the Kanto region are experiencing sunny skies. After this, due to the influence of a low pressure system off the coast of the Kanto region, clouds will gradually spread from the evening, and rain and snow will begin to fall in some places tonight.
If you will be returning home late, it is a good idea to bring rain gear.



The Kanto region is expected to have unstable atmospheric conditions due to the effects of low pressure over the ocean and cold air flowing into the sky, making it easier for rain clouds to develop. Rain and snow will begin to fall in places late tonight, and in some places it may be accompanied by thunder in Ibaraki and Chiba prefectures. In addition, there is a risk of heavy snow even in flat areas in northern areas such as Ibaraki and Tochigi prefectures.



In the northern Kanto region, there is a risk of heavy snow even in flat areas from early morning until the morning of the 10th (Tuesday).
The predicted 24-hour snowfall amount is expected to be 5 cm in the northern part of Ibaraki Prefecture, the northern mountains and southern plains of Tochigi Prefecture from 6 am on the 9th to 6 am on the 10th, and 3 cm in the northern part of Ibaraki Prefecture from 6 am on the 10th to 6 am on the 11th.
If the surface temperature is lower than expected or the amount of precipitation is higher than expected, there is a possibility of heavy snowfall.
Please be careful and alert to traffic obstructions due to snowfall and frozen roads. Also, be careful of snow accumulating on overhead lines, power lines, and trees.

Tomorrow, the 10th (Tuesday), will be gradually covered by high pressure, and many places will see rain and snow until around noon. It is likely that snow will remain in some areas during tomorrow's commute to work or school, so please be careful of deteriorating road conditions. The weather is expected to gradually improve in the afternoon.

[Weekly weather] Cool and sunny weather towards the middle of the week

2026/03/08 19:01

In the Sea of Okhotsk, there is a well-developed low pressure system with a front that is moving northeast.
Also, there is a well-developed low pressure system with a front over the sea east of Japan, and it is moving northeast.
On the other hand, there is a high pressure system over the Yellow Sea that is protruding to the east.

Currently, the area around Japan has a winter-like atmospheric pressure pattern centered on northern Japan, and snow is falling on the Sea of Japan side from Hokkaido to Hokuriku.
Today, it was sunny in many places on the Pacific side of northern Japan and in western and eastern Japan, but the weather was so sunny that the wind felt cold and cool.



Tomorrow, the 9th (Monday), the winter-like pressure system will loosen during the day, and high pressure will spread from the west, so the area of snow on the Sea of Japan side of northern Japan will become narrower.
Although it will be sunny in many places on the Pacific side of northern Japan and from Kanto to Kyushu and Okinawa,
temperatures will not rise much, and many places nationwide will be at or below normal, and the air will feel cool.







In addition, a low pressure system is expected to form near the Sea of Japan and the Kanto region at night.
Even in western and eastern Japan, there are places on the Sea of Japan coast, along the mountains, and in the Kanto region where it rains or snows, so if you're going home late, it's a good idea to bring a folding umbrella with you.

A low pressure system is expected to move eastward along the southern coast of western and eastern Japan around the 10th (Tuesday) and 12th (Thursday).
There are some places on the Pacific side where it will rain, and in some cases there is a possibility of snow, so please pay attention to future weather information.





Other days will be sunny on many days, but temperatures across the country are likely to remain slightly lower than normal until the middle of the week.
Temperatures drop at night and early in the morning, and it gets even colder inland, so there are likely to be places with temperatures of 0 degrees or below zero in western and eastern Japan.
Please be careful of late frost and frozen roads.

From the weekend onwards, the temperature is gradually rising, and it looks like it will be a sunny weather typical of this time of year.

3rd Cherry Blossom Bloom Date Forecast: Flowering is expected to begin in Kochi in western Japan.Blooming in Tokyo is expected to be around March 20th.

2026/03/08 08:10

Our company, Sunny Spot, is pleased to announce the expected date of the 3rd cherry blossom blooming. Please use this information when planning your cherry blossom viewing.

Cherry blossoms in 2026 are expected to bloom at a normal level or earlier than normal in western and eastern Japan. In northern Japan, there are many places where the flowers will bloom earlier than normal.

In late February, the whole country was covered with warm air, and temperatures tended to be significantly higher than normal. As we enter March, there were some days affected by cold air, but it is expected that there will be many sunny days from next Monday, the 9th onwards. Additionally, for about a week before the expected flowering date, temperatures are expected to remain at or above normal, mainly from western to eastern Japan.
For this reason, many locations have revised their expected flowering dates earlier than the predictions made at the time of the second announcement (February 24th).



In western Japan, Kochi is expected to bloom the earliest, around March 17th. In eastern Japan, the flowers are expected to start blooming in Gifu on March 19th, followed by Tokyo and Nagoya on the 20th.

In northern Japan, the flowers will start blooming in Fukushima around April 2nd, and the flowers in Sendai are expected to start blooming around April 4th. In northern Tohoku, the flowers will bloom in Akita around the 12th, and in Hokkaido, they will bloom in Hakodate around the 23rd. The flowering date in Sapporo is expected to be around April 25th.

Weekly weather Weather changes over several days Possibility of rain on the Pacific side of western and eastern Japan in the second half of the week

2026/03/08 07:21

From the beginning of the week, the area around Honshu will be covered in high pressure and there will be many sunny days. However, around the 12th, there are likely to be some places on the Pacific side of western and eastern Japan where the weather will deteriorate.



Tomorrow, the 9th (Monday), the beginning of the week, will be sunny in many places at first.
However, in Hokkaido, the sky is likely to be unstable and prone to snow.
In the afternoon, a low pressure system is expected to form along the coasts of the Sea of Japan and Kanto. In Hokuriku and the San'in area, the weather will gradually deteriorate from the evening, and the rain and snow will likely spread from the San'in area to the Sea of Japan side of northern Japan. There will be some places in the Kanto region where it will begin to rain into the night of tomorrow, the 9th. Please be aware of road conditions as there is a possibility of snow inland and along the northern mountains.

The weather will be covered by high pressure from the 10th to the 11th, and the weather is likely to improve and become sunny in many places. However, a new low pressure system is expected to form near the Pacific side of western Japan around the 12th. There are places on the Pacific side of western Japan and eastern Japan where it will rain, and there is a possibility of temporary rain even in places where there is no umbrella symbol in the weather forecast. However, the low pressure system will gradually move away from Honshu, and the high pressure system will become dominant, and the weather will improve across the country.

Until the middle of next week, due to the effects of cold air, there will likely be many days with temperatures slightly lower than normal on the Sea of Japan side. On the Pacific side, many places will be at normal levels. There is a large difference in temperature between day and night, so please try not to get sick.
Also, the scattering of cedar pollen has reached its peak. The amount of dispersion increases when the weather is sunny after a rain or when the wind gets stronger. If you are sensitive to hay fever, please take precautions against hay fever before going out.

Weather is expected to be rough in northern Japan and Hokuriku from today until tomorrow, but no major collapse is expected on the Pacific side.

2026/03/07 15:46

Today, the 7th (Saturday), the weather has been rough mainly in northern Japan and Hokuriku due to the effects of a low pressure system moving east-northeast in the Sea of Japan and another low pressure system developing off the coast of Sanriku and moving north-northeast.

Rain and snow are falling over a wide area on the Sea of Japan side of Hokkaido, Tohoku, and the San'in region. There will be some localized areas with thunderstorms.



In Tohoku and Hokuriku regions, there are places where storm warnings and wave warnings have been announced.
Akita Prefecture coastline and Yamagata Prefecture Shonai area should be on alert for strong winds until early evening of the 7th, and high waves from mid-afternoon to late evening of the 7th.
In eastern Miyagi Prefecture, please be on alert for strong winds until the evening of the 7th.
In Niigata Prefecture, please be on alert for strong winds in Sado until the afternoon of the 7th. Please be careful of high waves in Kaetsu and Sado from noon on the 7th to evening on the 7th.



Also, as the cold air moves southward, many areas where it is currently raining will gradually turn to snow at night. In areas with heavy snowfall in northern and western Japan, be careful of avalanches caused by fresh snow.

Although many other regions are experiencing sunny skies, clouds will likely spread from the Kanto region to parts of the Pacific side of Shikoku after this due to the influence of moist air. It looks like there will be rain and snow in some places until dawn tomorrow, the 8th (Sunday).

The predicted maximum temperature is expected to be around or below normal in many places, and the northerly wind will likely make it feel colder.



Tomorrow, the 8th (Sunday), the low pressure system is expected to move north across the Sea of Okhotsk, and the area around northern Japan is expected to gradually become winter-like.
Particularly in the Hokkaido region, the atmospheric pressure is expected to have a large gradient over the next 8 days, and snow and wind are expected to become stronger mainly on the Sea of Japan side. Please continue to be careful and be on guard against traffic obstructions caused by blowing snow, snowdrifts, and heavy snow, as well as strong winds and storms.
Snow continues on the Sea of Japan side from Tohoku to the Sanin area, but the area of snow is gradually narrowing and the weather seems to be improving from the west.

The area around Honshu will gradually be covered by high pressure overhanging from the continent, and many areas are expected to be sunny.

At the beginning of the week, on the 9th (Monday), the low pressure system will move away from northern Japan and the winds will gradually weaken, but due to the influence of moist westerly winds, there will continue to be snow on the Sea of Japan side of northern and eastern Japan. No major weather disturbances are expected in other areas.

Weather for today, the 7th (Saturday): Beware of stormy weather in northern Japan; many places from Kanto to the west will be sunny

2026/03/07 06:42

Today, the 7th (Saturday), a low pressure system is expected to develop and move towards northern Japan. There is a risk of snow, rain, strong winds, and rough weather in northern Japan, especially Hokkaido.



Due to the influence of the low pressure system, heavy snow and rain is expected in northern Japan. In Hokkaido, there is a risk of heavy snow due to wet snow mainly along the inland mountains on the Sea of Japan side. In addition, the winds are strong, especially in the coastal areas, and there are places where it can become violent, so you need to be careful about blizzards.
At night, the atmospheric pressure will gradually change to a winter-like pattern, so during the day there will be areas where rain will turn to snow, and the range will expand.

It's likely to be a day of rain and snow from Hokuriku to the Sanin area. Please bring sturdy rain gear when going out.

From the Kanto region to the west, sunlight is likely to reach mainly the Pacific side. The weather will be fine for going out. There are some places in the Kanto region where the rain will remain until the morning, but the weather looks like it will gradually improve.

Even in western Japan, where the weather is sunny during the day, temperatures will rise slowly and many places will be lower than normal. Please keep warm when going out.
In the Kanto region and southern Tohoku region, temperatures are expected to rise from the previous day and become as warm as April. It gets colder at night, so please be careful of the temperature difference throughout the day.
The temperature in northern Japan is typical for this time of year.