Conditions close to La Nina phenomenon towards the beginning of winter What are the trends in winter in Japan

2025/11/11 13:28

The Japan Meteorological Agency released an El Nino monitoring bulletin on Monday, November 10th.

Currently, conditions appear to be normal, with neither El Nino nor La Nina occurring, but conditions are said to be close to La Nina.
It is expected that La Nina-like conditions will continue through the beginning of winter, but since they will quickly resolve after that, a La Nina phenomenon will not occur, and it is likely that normal conditions will continue through the beginning of spring.



#El Nino/La Nina phenomenon Last month's October live report (from the Japan Meteorological Agency)
It appears to be normal conditions with neither El Nino nor La Nina phenomena occurring, but conditions are close to La Nina.
The difference in sea surface temperature in the El Nino monitoring area in October from the standard value was -0.5c, which was lower than the standard value.
Also, the 5-month moving average used to determine the occurrence of El Nino/La Nina phenomena in August was -0.3c, close to the standard value.
Sea surface temperatures in the equatorial Pacific Ocean were higher than normal in the western part of the country, but lower than normal in the central and eastern regions.
Surface water temperatures in the equatorial Pacific Ocean were higher than normal in the western part of the ocean, but lower than normal in the central and eastern regions, with low temperatures becoming stronger in the eastern part. The easterly winds (trade winds) in the lower atmosphere of the equatorial Pacific region were stronger than normal in the western and central regions.
Convective activity was active near Indonesia, but inactive near the international date line in the equatorial Pacific.
These atmospheric and ocean conditions appear to be normal, with neither El Nino nor La Nina occurring, but they indicate conditions close to La Nina.



#Future outlook (from the Japan Meteorological Agency)
Conditions close to La Nina will continue into the early part of winter.
However, since it will quickly resolve after that, a La Nina phenomenon will not occur, and normal conditions are likely to continue until the beginning of spring.
According to the live report, cold water continues in the central and eastern parts of the equatorial Pacific Ocean.
The coupled atmosphere-ocean model predicts that as trade winds continue to be strong in the equatorial Pacific, sea surface temperatures in the El Nino monitoring area are likely to remain lower than the standard value through the beginning of winter.
After that, however, this state will not last long because the atmosphere-ocean coupling will weaken, and sea surface temperatures are expected to rise rapidly, reaching values close to the standard value at the beginning of spring.
From the above, it is likely that conditions close to La Nina will continue through the beginning of winter, but will not reach the point where La Nina occurs, and normal conditions will continue through the beginning of spring.



#Characteristics of Japan's weather during the La Nina phenomenon
The characteristics of Japan's weather during the La Nina phenomenon during the three months centered on December (November to January) are that the average temperature tends to be average or low in eastern and western Japan.
Precipitation tends to be high on the Sea of Japan side of northern Japan, and low on the Pacific side of eastern Japan and western Japan.
Sunshine hours tend to be high in western Japan, and average or low in Okinawa and Amami.

Typhoon No. 26 takes a sharp turn; warning-level heavy rain is expected until Friday the 14th in Okinawa; strong cold air will flow westward next week [Weekly Weather]

2025/11/11 11:55

As of 9am today, November 11th (Tuesday), Typhoon No. 26 (Fuongwon) is located in the South China Sea and is moving north-northwest at a speed of 15 km/hr.

The central pressure is 980hPa, accompanied by stormy winds.



From now on, it will gradually change its course to the northeast while weakening its strength, and
is expected to approach and land on Taiwan on the afternoon of the 12th (Wednesday) tomorrow.

It is expected to get very close to the Sakishima Islands in Okinawa on the 13th (Thursday), and turn into an extratropical cyclone south of Okinawa by the morning of
14th (Friday).

The typhoon itself is approaching Okinawa's Sakishima Islands while weakening, but
warm and humid air is flowing towards the stationary front near the Nansei Islands,
and there is a risk that heavy rain will continue for a long time even if the typhoon weakens.

There are already heavy rains in some places even before the typhoon approaches,
heavy rain warnings and flood warnings have been announced in the Yaeyama region, including Miyakojima in Okinawa.
Be wary of flooding in low-lying areas, rising water levels and flooding of rivers.

Locally heavy rain will fall in the main island of Okinawa and the Sakishima Islands through tomorrow the 12th (Wednesday),
and depending on the degree of rain cloud development, there is a risk of warning-level heavy rain until around
14th (Friday).
Please be careful of landslides, flooding of low-lying areas, and rising river waters.


[Rain forecast] (24-hour rainfall/in areas where there is a lot of rain)
Today, the 11th (Tuesday) noon to tomorrow 12th (Wednesday) noon
Okinawa main island region 120mm
Sakishima Islands 60mm
From tomorrow 12th (Wednesday) noon to 13th (Thursday) noon
Okinawa main island region 80mm
Sakishima Islands 50mm
.


Very strong and strong winds are expected to blow in the Okinawa region into the 13th (Thursday),
, and swells are expected to occur in coastal waters.

Please be careful of high waves and strong winds.
Please note that depending on the path of the typhoon and the strength of the winds in the East China Sea, there is a risk of strong winds and heavy storms in the Sakishima Islands on the 13th (Thursday).

Also, in the Sakishima Islands and Okinawa main island region,
be careful of strong gusts such as lightning and tornadoes.



After changing from a typhoon to an extratropical cyclone and becoming unclear near Okinawa,
15th (Saturday) will be covered by high pressure and many places will be sunny.

On the 16th (Sunday), a low pressure system accompanied by a front will develop and move towards northern Japan, and
from the 17th (Monday) onwards, a strong winter-type pressure pattern is likely to occur.



The strongest cold air of the season is expected to flow westward from the 17th (Monday) to the 18th (Tuesday).

Snow will fall on the plains over western Japan (below -6c at around 1500m)
Strong cold air will flow in.

It looks like there will be snow in some places in the mountains of western Japan, and it looks like the season will take another big step next week.

Please take care of your physical condition as the temperature difference will be large.

Typhoon No. 26 will pass through Taiwan and reach the Sakishima Islands in the second half of the week; Okinawa should be careful of heavy rain disaster due to long rains

2025/11/11 08:31

As of 6:00 a.m. today, Tuesday, the 11th, Typhoon No. 26 is in the South China Sea and is moving north-northwest at a speed of approximately 15 kilometers per hour, accompanied by strong winds.

#Typhoon No. 26 Tuesday 11th 6:00
==================
Center location South China Sea
Movement North-northwest 15km/h
Central pressure 975 hPa
Maximum wind speed 30 m/s (near the center)
Maximum instantaneous wind speed 45 m/s
==================



Typhoon No. 26 is expected to continue moving northward in the South China Sea, change its course eastward around the 13th, and pass near Taiwan. After that, it is expected to turn into an extratropical cyclone and approach the Sakishima Islands.

A front is expected to form in the Okinawa region, and as moist air from the typhoon flows toward the front, there is a risk of increased frontal activity.
It is likely to rain even before the typhoon approaches, and the effects may last for a long time, so you need to be careful about landslides, flooding of low-lying areas, and rising river waters.

In addition, as the gradient in atmospheric pressure increases between the typhoon and the high pressure system, the winds will become stronger and there is a risk of severe storms on the 13th. Please be careful of high waves and strong winds.

#Expected wave height (with swells)
+Expected wave height for today, the 11th
Okinawa main island region 4 meters
Daitojima region 4 meters
Sakishima Islands 5 meters
+Wave height expected for tomorrow 12th (Wednesday)
Okinawa Main Island region 4 meters
Daitojima Region 4 meters Toru
Sakishima Islands 4 meters

#Expected wind strength
+Expected wind direction for today 11th+Maximum wind speed (maximum instantaneous wind speed)
Okinawa book Island region Northeast wind 17 meters (30 meters)
Sakishima Islands East wind 17 meters (30 meters)
+Wind direction expected for tomorrow 12th (Wednesday)+Maximum wind speed (maximum instantaneous wind speed)
Okinawa main island region Northeast then east wind 17 meters (30 meters) Daitojima region East wind 15 meters (2) 5 meters)

#Expected amount of rain (in areas where there is a lot)
+Precipitation expected for 1 hour today, 11th
Okinawa Main Island region 30mm
Sakishima Islands 30mm
+1-hour precipitation forecast for tomorrow 12th (Wednesday)
Okinawa Main Island region 30mm
+24-hour precipitation forecast by 6:00 tomorrow 12th (Wednesday)
Okinawa Main Island Region 100mm
Sakishima Islands 100mm
+24-hour precipitation expected by 6:00 a.m. on the 13th (Thursday) the next day
Okinawa Main Island Region 80mm

Today's weather on the 11th (Tuesday): Snow on the Sea of ??Japan side of Hokkaido, heavy rain warning for Okinawa, sunshine reaching from Kanto to the west

2025/11/11 06:14

Today, the 11th (Tuesday), winter-like atmospheric pressure patterns will continue mainly in northern Japan. It snows easily, especially on the Sea of Japan side of Hokkaido, so you need to be careful about snowfall. On the other hand, there will be many sunny areas from the Kanto region to the west. Okinawa needs to be careful of heavy rain caused by the front.



Snow and rain will continue on the Japan Sea side from Hokkaido to Tohoku. In Hokkaido, there are places where even flat areas are covered with snow, so be careful of frozen roads. Additionally, the winds are strong in Hokkaido, and there may be some swampy areas along the coast. Please be careful when driving.
It looks like there will be time for sunlight to reach the Pacific side. It will feel cold throughout the day, so please be sure to protect yourself from the cold when you go out.

It will be sunny in many places from Kanto to western Japan. The weather is expected to be relatively pleasant and sunny at around 20 degrees Celsius during the day. It gets cold in the mornings and evenings, so please dress accordingly.

The front is expected to be stagnant in Okinawa. In addition, frontal activity is expected to increase as moist air from the typhoon flows toward the front. Please be careful as rain clouds may develop locally and there is a risk of heavy rain and thunderstorms.

The moon and Jupiter will approach later tonight. Also pay attention to the alignment of the three shining stars. Are you curious about the weather tonight

2025/11/10 12:04

From late night today, the 10th (Monday) to early morning tomorrow, the 11th (Tuesday), the Moon and Jupiter will be seen aligned.
The moon and Jupiter lined up in the sky from late at night yesterday, the 9th (Sunday) to early morning today, the 10th (Monday), but they were probably not visible in many places because they were covered by rain clouds and clouds.
It looks like there will be more places where there will be opportunities for observation tonight.



#Moon and Jupiter approach Also pay attention to the line-up of three shining stars
The sight of the nearly half-moon-shaped Moon, which will reach its waning quarter next Wednesday, and the extremely bright Jupiter, which has a magnitude of -2.4, will catch your eye.
In November, Jupiter is located in the constellation Gemini, and can be seen shining alongside the first-magnitude star "Pollux" and the second-magnitude star "Castor" in the constellation Gemini.
Why don't you enjoy the three stars that are conspicuously arranged, although their brightness is different

#What's the weather like tonight



Tonight, a front will extend south of Okinawa, and intermittent rain is expected in Okinawa.
Amami will also have a lot of clouds and some showers.
It is expected that the atmospheric pressure pattern will continue to be high in the west and low in the east around western and northern Japan.
There will be a lot of clouds from Kinki to Hokkaido on the Sea of Japan side, there will be showers in northern Kinki and Hokuriku, rain on the Sea of Japan side of Tohoku, and rain or snow on the Sea of Japan side of Hokkaido.
Unfortunately, the sky will be in poor condition for observing the moon and Jupiter.
Other areas have few clouds and the chances of observation are high.
However, the temperature is low and cold, so please take proper measures against the cold when observing outside.

Large and strong typhoon No. 26 is expected to head north in the South China Sea and change course to the east. Okinawa should be careful of the impact of the typhoon

2025/11/10 07:42

Large and strong Typhoon No. 26 has passed near the Luzon Island in the Philippines, and as of 6 a.m. today, Monday, the 10th, it is moving west-northwest in the South China Sea.

#Typhoon No. 26 10th (Monday) 6:00 am
===================
Size Large
Strength Strong
Central Location South China Sea
Movement WNW 30km/h
Central Pressure 970h Pa
Maximum wind speed: 35m/s (near the center)
Maximum instantaneous wind speed: 50m/s
===================

Typhoon No. 26 is expected to continue to develop further northward in the South China Sea, and gradually change its course to the east around the 12th. After that, its strength is expected to weaken gradually, but it will approach the Nansei Islands on the 14th. It is expected to turn into a tropical cyclone around the 15th.

In the Nansei Islands, due to the effects of Typhoon No. 26, waves are high with swells on the sea, and there are barges near the Sakishima Islands. Depending on the path of the typhoon, there is a risk of severe damage in the Sakishima Islands until the 11th, and the effects of the waves are expected to continue for some time after that. Please be careful of strong winds and high waves accompanied by swells.

In addition, due to the warm and humid air of Typhoon No. 26 and the moist air circulating around the edge of the high pressure system, the front will remain stationary near Okinawa, and rain is expected to continue into the weekend around the 15th (Saturday). Due to the influence of the front and typhoon, the rain may become stronger, leading to warning-level heavy rain. Please be careful of landslides caused by heavy rain, flooding of low-lying areas, rising water levels and flooding of rivers, and pay attention to typhoon information that will be updated in the future.



#Wave forecast
Wave height expected on the 10th
Okinawa main island region, 4 meters with swells
Daitojima region, 3 meters with swells
Sakishima Islands, 5 meters with swells

Wave height expected on the 11th
Okinawa Main Island region, 4 meters with swells
Daitojima region, 3 meters with swells
Sakishima Islands, 5 meters with swells

#Wind forecast
Wind direction and maximum wind speed (maximum instantaneous wind speed) expected on the 10th
Okinawa Main Island region, northeast wind 15 meters (25 meters)
Sakishima Islands Northeast wind 17 meters (30 meters)

Wind direction and maximum wind speed (maximum instantaneous wind speed) expected on the 11th
Okinawa Main Island region East wind 15 meters (25 meters)
Sakishima Islands East wind Wind: 15 meters (25 meters)

#Rain forecast
The expected 1-hour precipitation on the 11th is high in places
Sakishima Islands 30 mm

The 24-hour precipitation expected from 6:00 on the 11th to 6:00 on the 12th is high in places
Sakishima Islands 80 mm

Tomorrow, the 10th (Monday), the area around Honshu will experience a winter-like atmospheric pressure pattern, and Hokkaido is expected to turn to snow by night.

2025/11/09 21:21

Tomorrow, the 10th (Monday), the beginning of the week, the area around Honshu will experience a winter-like atmospheric pressure pattern of high in the west and low in the east. There are many places on the Pacific Ocean side that will be sunny, but the atmospheric conditions will be unstable on the Sea of Japan side of northern Japan and Hokuriku. In Hokkaido, rain is likely to change to snow overnight.



Looking at the atmospheric pressure profile for tomorrow, the 10th (Monday), the two low pressure systems that brought widespread rain on the 9th (Sunday) are expected to pass through the Sea of Okhotsk and the sea east of Japan. The Siberian High with strong cold air will protrude over the continent, and the area around Honshu will have a high pressure pattern in the west and low pressure in the east. Near Honshu, the isobar lines are narrow and form vertical stripes, and the cold northerly winds will become stronger, especially on the Sea of Japan side.



Atmospheric conditions are unstable in the area on the Japan Sea side from Tohoku to Hokuriku. Looking at the forecast for the probability of lightning strikes, it is expected that the situation will continue to be high, mainly from Tohoku to Hokuriku on the Sea of Japan side. The area of rain will spread from the morning, and it is likely that the rain will become heavier in some places. Be careful not only of rain, but also of strong gusts of wind such as lightning and tornadoes.




Intense cold air with temperatures below -6c is expected to flow into the night around 1,500m above northern Japan. In Hokkaido and Aomori prefectures, it is expected to rain in the morning, but gradually turn to snow by the afternoon. In the high altitude areas of Tohoku and eastern Japan, there may be some places where there will be snow mixed with sleet. At night, snow will spread across Hokkaido, and it is likely that there will be snow in some places on the plains into the 11th.



Okinawa and the Sakishima Islands will be cloudy and rainy due to the influence of moist air from Typhoon No. 26, and the sea will gradually become swelled. The wind is expected to gradually increase, so please be careful of strong winds and high waves. In addition, rain is likely to continue until around the 14th, and there is a risk of heavy rain reaching warning level. Please be careful of heavy rain.

Typhoon No. 26 is approaching the Sakishima Islands and Okinawa area with large and extremely strong force.

2025/11/09 18:00

Typhoon No. 26, a large and extremely strong typhoon, is moving east of the Philippines toward the west at a speed of 30 kilometers per hour.
The typhoon is expected to move west-northwest east of the Philippines, then change its course northward and head north in the South China Sea from the 11th to the 12th, weakening near Taiwan around the 13th, approaching the Sakishima Islands around the 14th, and the Okinawa region on the 15th.



Currently, waves are high with swells in the coastal waters of the Okinawa region, and waves are breaking in the Sakishima Islands.
Tomorrow, the 10th, strong winds are expected to blow in the Sakishima Islands and Okinawa main island region as the gradient in atmospheric pressure increases between the continental high pressure and the typhoon.
Please be careful of strong winds and high waves accompanied by swells.

Depending on the path of the typhoon in the Sakishima Islands, there is a risk of heavy rain from the 10th to the 11th, and warning-level heavy rain from the 11th to the 14th.
Please be careful of landslides, flooding of low-lying areas, and rising river waters.

Please be careful of lightning, gusts of wind, and sudden heavy rain under cumulonimbus clouds that have developed in the Daito Island region from the 9th and in the Sakishima Islands from the 10th.



### Wave forecast
Wave height expected on the 9th
Okinawa main island region 3 meters With swells.
Daitojima region 3 meters with swells.
Sakishima Islands 4 meters With swells.

Wave height expected on the 10th
Okinawa Main Island region 4 meters, accompanied by swells.
Daitojima region 3 meters with swells.
Sakishima Islands 5 meters With swells.

Wave height expected on the 11th
Okinawa Main Island region 4 meters with swells.
Daitojima region 3 meters with swells.
Sakishima Islands 5 meters With swells.

###Wind forecast
Wind direction and maximum wind speed (maximum instantaneous wind speed) expected on the 10th
Okinawa Main Island region Northeast wind 15 meters (25 meters).
Sakishima Islands Northeast wind 17 meters (30 meters).

Wind direction and maximum wind speed (maximum instantaneous wind speed) expected on the 11th
Okinawa main island region, northeast wind 15 meters (25 meters).
Sakishima Islands Northeast wind 17 meters (30 meters).

###Rain Forecast
The predicted 24-hour precipitation from 18:00 on the 10th to 18:00 on the 11th is high in some places:
Sakishima Islands 80 mm

Widespread rain today, the 9th (Sunday); atmospheric instability in northern and eastern Japan into tomorrow

2025/11/09 06:49

There is a high pressure system to the east of Japan that is moving southeast.
Meanwhile, a low pressure system accompanied by a front is located west of Kyushu and moving east.



Today, a low pressure system accompanied by a front is expected to move from western Japan to the Pacific side of eastern Japan,
and be affected by humid air. As a result, it will rain over a wide area from western Japan to eastern Japan.

In addition, another low-pressure system has formed near Primorye and is expected to develop over the 10th, moving towards the Sea of Okhotsk, and a cold front is expected to pass from northern Japan to eastern Japan.
As a result of this, there will be some places in northern Japan where it will rain in the afternoon.





Furthermore, on the 10th, strong cold air is expected to flow into the sky for this time of year.
Atmospheric conditions will become unstable in some places over the next 10 days in northern Japan and
east Japan due to the effects of warm, humid air heading towards the low pressure system and front, and cold air in the upper atmosphere.
Please be careful of thunderstorms, tornadoes, strong gusts of wind, and localized heavy rain.

Tomorrow, the 9th (Sunday): Widespread rain; thunderstorms and strong rain and wind in some places; watch out for melting snow in Hokkaido

2025/11/08 12:21

Today, the 8th (Saturday), the area around Honshu is covered in high pressure and the weather is crisp and sunny, making it a perfect day for going out and viewing autumn leaves.
Tomorrow, the 9th (Sunday), rain will fall across the country due to low pressure and fronts.
The rain and wind will be strong in some places, so please take advantage of the sunshine today, the 8th (Saturday).



As of 9 a.m. today, the 8th (Saturday), a front is extending from the continent to the East China Sea.
By tonight, a low pressure system will have formed in the East China Sea above the front, and is expected to move eastward around western and eastern Japan until tomorrow, the 9th (Sunday).
Also, tonight, a front will extend from the Yellow Sea to the northeastern region of China, forming a low-pressure system accompanied by the front, and moving towards the Sea of Okhotsk into tomorrow, the 9th (Sunday).
A cold front extending from a low pressure system is expected to pass through eastern and northern Japan.
Atmospheric conditions will be unstable due to the influence of warm, humid air heading towards low pressure systems and fronts, as well as cold air in the upper atmosphere.
Please be careful of strong rain, thunderstorms, and sideways rain.



Tomorrow, the 9th (Sun), it will rain in many places in western Japan from the morning, and the Tokai and Kanto regions will experience rain on and off.
In the Pacific coast of western and eastern Japan, please be careful of sideways driving rain caused by strong winds.



As the low pressure moves eastward, the area where it will rain is expected to gradually expand.
There will be more places in Hokuriku where it will start raining from around noon.
In northern Japan, rain is expected to start falling from the Sea of Japan side in the afternoon, with some thunderstorms expected.
At night, there will be places on the Pacific side of northern Japan where it will start to rain.



Hokkaido is also expected to experience rain instead of snow as warm, humid air will flow toward the low pressure system moving toward the Sea of Okhotsk.
The currently accumulated snow is expected to melt in many places in the plains by the morning of the 9th (Sunday), but in the mountainous areas, rain will fall where snow remains, so please be careful of deterioration in road conditions due to melting snow.