[One-Month Forecast] Temperatures are expected to be above average nationwide over the coming month; caution is also advised regarding rainfall from typhoons, low-pressure systems, and weather fronts.

2026/10/16 19:20

On Thursday the 15th, the Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) released its one-month forecast, covering the period from October 17 to November 16.

Over the coming month, temperatures are expected to be higher than average nationwide, as the country will likely be covered by warm air. Furthermore, the region will be susceptible to the influence of low-pressure systems and weather fronts; precipitation is expected to be above average along the Pacific coast of Eastern Japan, while in Northern Japan, the Sea of ??Japan side of Eastern Japan, and Western Japan, precipitation will likely be near or above average.


These are the results based on numerical weather prediction models.

Regarding the one-month average sea-level pressure (left image), a trough of low pressure is projected near Japan. With pressure levels expected to be lower than average from Central China to the Sea of ??Japan, and higher than average from Southern China to the area south of Japan, the pattern suggests that moist air from the south will easily flow into the region. Consequently, Northern, Eastern, and Western Japan are expected to be frequently affected by low-pressure systems and weather fronts.

Temperatures at an altitude of approximately 1,500 meters (right image) are projected to be higher than average, particularly across Northern, Eastern, and Western Japan, indicating that the entire country is likely to be covered by warm air.



These charts show the forecasts for average temperature, precipitation, and sunshine duration over the next month, as well as the weekly average temperature forecasts (expressed as probabilities in percent). With the country likely to be covered by warm air, average temperatures are expected to be higher than normal. In particular, temperatures are projected to be significantly above average across Northern, Eastern, and Western Japan during the first half of the period, and in the Okinawa and Amami regions at the start of the period.

Due to the frequent influence of low-pressure systems and weather fronts, precipitation is expected to be above average along the Pacific side of Eastern Japan, while Northern Japan, the Sea of ??Japan side of Eastern Japan, and Western Japan can expect near-normal or above-normal precipitation.

Sunshine duration along the Pacific side of Eastern Japan and in Western Japan is expected to be near or below average. Although weather patterns will shift in cycles lasting a few days, there are likely to be fewer sunny days than usual.

While autumn weather often follows a cycle of change every few days, the coming month is expected to be characterized by a frequent susceptibility to low-pressure systems and weather fronts.
Precipitation is projected to be particularly heavy along the Pacific side of Eastern Japan.
As these systems may lead to localized heavy rainfall, please stay updated with the latest weather information and prepare for the possibility of heavy rain.
Additionally, close attention should be paid to the path of Typhoon No. 30, which is currently moving westward near the Chuuk Islands. Depending on its trajectory, it could potentially impact the Nansei Islands and the Japanese archipelago around next weekend.
Please make sure to check for regular updates on the typhoon.

[Perfect Weather for a Festival] A rock festival will be held on Miyakojima this Saturday, the 17th; with a high of 30°C, it will be warm enough to work up a sweat.

2026/10/16 17:13

A major rock festival will take place tomorrow, Saturday the 17th, on Miyakojima Island in Okinawa Prefecture. The event features a lineup of high-profile artists?acts known for successful performances in stadiums and arenas?making it a major highlight for the island.

In preparation for the festival, we have compiled the local weather forecast for this weekend, along with some tips to ensure a comfortable experience.

Weather for Saturday, the 17th
The weather on Saturday, the 17th, will be sunny with occasional clouds. There is a low chance of rain, and with a high of 30C (86F) and a low of 25C (77F), it will be warm?perfect for a summer-style music festival.



Tomorrow, the 17th, a migratory high-pressure system will cover much of the area around Honshu, extending its influence to Miyakojima. As a result, the island can expect plenty of sunshine, making for a pleasant day for the festival. While some clouds may roll in during the afternoon due to humid air, the chance of rain remains low, ensuring a comfortable day overall.



Tips for Attendees
With clear, sunny skies expected throughout the weekend on Miyakojima, you will likely be exposed to the sun for most of the day. Although a temperature of 30C is relatively manageable, the "feels-like" temperature can be significantly higher in outdoor areas with little shade. Please be sure to stay hydrated and replenish your salt intake regularly.
Additionally, as the venue is located near the ocean, please be mindful of the wind. On Saturday the 17th, winds of around 6 meters per second are expected on Miyakojima, with the possibility of stronger gusts at times.
Please take care to ensure that hats and lightweight personal items are not blown away.

Be sure to check the latest weather updates frequently, and take good care of your health so you can fully enjoy the live concert experience!

Typhoon No. 30: Despite Uncertain Track, Okinawa Should Stay Alert in the Latter Half of Next Week(Analysis by Weather Forecaster Junko Miyake)

2026/10/16 14:35

At 3 PM yesterday, on the 15th, Typhoon No. 30 formed over the far southeastern waters of Japan.

Let's take a look at the projected path of Typhoon No. 30.
The typhoon is currently near the Truk Islands, moving westward.

Its maximum sustained winds near the center are 23 meters per second, meaning it currently has only a strong-wind area and no storm-force wind area yet.

The typhoon is expected to intensify as it moves.
By tomorrow, Saturday, it is forecast to develop a storm-force wind area.
By Sunday, it is expected to strengthen into a "strong" typhoon.

It will continue to intensify as it moves westward, and by Monday the 19th, it is forecast to reach a "very strong" intensity.
Around the middle of next week, its central pressure is expected to drop to around 935 hPa.

There is a possibility that the typhoon will approach Okinawa while maintaining very strong intensity.

As for its future track, it is still uncertain whether it will continue westward or turn toward Okinawa.
At this stage, the direction beyond that point remains unclear.

However, one thing we can say is that the typhoon may approach the Okinawa region while maintaining very strong intensity.

Typhoons intensify by drawing moisture from warm ocean waters.
This map shows sea surface temperatures as of yesterday.
The yellow line marks areas with temperatures of 27C or higher.
South of that line, waters are warmer than 27C-conditions favorable for typhoon development.
The waters around Okinawa are also within this 27C-and-above zone.

Because of this, the typhoon is likely to maintain very strong intensity and may approach Okinawa.
Please continue to pay close attention to updates on its track.

Now, let's look at the weekend weather for Okinawa.

This weekend, many areas will see sunshine under the influence of high pressure.
Daytime temperatures will exceed 30C in many places, which is 2 to 3 degrees higher than average for this time of year.
Heatstroke precautions are still necessary.
Both Saturday and Sunday will see moderately strong easterly winds.

Here is the weekly forecast.
Through around Tuesday next week, many areas will continue to see sunshine.
On Wednesday the 21st, rain is expected to begin in Minami-Daito as the region starts to feel the effects of the typhoon.

Later next week, depending on the typhoon's track, Okinawa may experience severe weather.
Please stay updated with the latest typhoon information.

Widespread Autumn Sunshine This Weekend: Typhoon No. 30 Strengthening and Stormy Weather Expected Next Week(Analysis by Certified Weather Forecaster Junko Miyake)

2026/10/16 13:57

Clear autumn weather is expected to spread across many areas this weekend.
Let's take a look at the weekend weather charts.

High pressure will cover much of the country on both Saturday and Sunday.
On Saturday in particular, strong high pressure will bring sunny autumn skies nationwide.
The air will be dry, creating crisp and comfortable conditions.

By Sunday the 18th, the center of the high-pressure system will shift slightly eastward.
Moist air flowing around the edge of the high will make clouds more likely to develop over western Japan.

Now, let's look at the weekend weather.
Sunny conditions will dominate both days.
From the Kanto region westward, many areas will see temperatures rise above 25C, reaching summer-like levels.
It will feel warm enough for short sleeves during the day, but the temperature difference between morning and evening will be large, so please be mindful of the changing conditions.

Next, let's move on to Typhoon No. 30, which formed over the far southeastern waters of Japan at 3 PM yesterday.

The typhoon is currently near the Truk Islands, moving westward.
Its maximum sustained winds are 23 meters per second, meaning it has not yet developed a storm-force wind area-only a strong-wind area at this stage.

However, the typhoon is expected to intensify as it continues westward.
By Saturday the 17th, it is forecast to develop a storm-force wind area.
On Sunday the 18th, it will strengthen further, and by Monday the 19th, it is expected to reach a very strong intensity.

Early next week, the central pressure is forecast to drop even more, reaching around 935 hPa by Wednesday the 21st.

The future track remains uncertain, and it is still unclear whether it will turn northward or continue westward.
However, one thing is certain: the typhoon is likely to maintain very strong intensity as it moves.

Typhoons intensify by drawing moisture from warm ocean waters.
This map shows sea surface temperatures as of yesterday.
The yellow line marks areas with temperatures of 27C or higher-a key threshold for typhoon development.
Waters around Okinawa, as well as south of Shikoku and Kyushu, are above 27C, providing favorable conditions for further strengthening.

Because of this, the typhoon may continue to intensify and could move northward while maintaining strong intensity.
Please stay updated with the latest information.

Finally, here is the weekly forecast.
This weekend will feature widespread autumn sunshine.
On Sunday, clouds will increase compared to Saturday, and some areas along the Pacific side of Shikoku may see rain.

The weather pattern will shift significantly after Sunday.
Rain will become more frequent next week.

A series of developing low-pressure systems will pass over northern Japan, especially on Monday the 19th and Wednesday the 21st, bringing the risk of stormy weather.
Later next week, Typhoon No. 30 may approach Japan.
Please continue to monitor the latest typhoon updates.